Odds Makers - Odds require an even hand

By Ed Golden

“Experience is simply the name we give to our mistakes.”—Oscar Wilde.

When it comes to making morning line odds for a racing program, experience assuredly is beneficial, but with the main being a singularly subjective endeavor, it is rarely fully achieved.

The morning line has been described as “probable odds on each horse in a race, as determined by a mathematical formula used by the track handicapper who tries to gauge both the ability of the horse and the likely final odds as determined by the bettors.”

It is a system in which bettors do not compete against the track or a casino but among each other. It is known as pari-mutuel, a form of wagering originated in 1865 by Frenchman Pierre Oiler where all money bet is divided up among those who have winning tickets after taxes, takeout and other deductions are made.

(Oiler called his system “parier mutual” meaning “mutual stake” or “betting among ourselves.” As this betting method was adopted in England, it became known as “Paris mutuals,” and soon after “pari-mutuels).”

The “deductions,” better known as the “take” or “takeout,” is a commission deducted from mutuel pools, which are shared by the track, horsemen (in the form of purses) and local and state governing bodies in the form of tax.

The takeout generally falls between 22 and 26 percent, and each of the final odds posted on the tote board or television monitors upon completion of a race represents a mathematically established percentage of the total mutuel pool formulated by the bettors. Rounded off, it can range from 81 percent (1-5 odds) to 3 percent (30-1).

In other words, the morning line is not merely rendered randomly. For example, even money comprises 50 percent of the mutuel pool: 8-5 odds (38 percent); 9-2 odds (18 percent), 15-1 odds (6 percent) and so on.

In a hypothetical six-horse field, the odds could be 6-5 (45 percent), 5-2 (28 percent), 7-2 (22 percent), 8-1 (11 percent), 10-1 (9 percent) and 12-1 (7 percent) for a total of 122 percent—100 percent of the money wagered by bettors, plus 22 percent takeout. Prior to and upon completion of each race, the total percentage, based on the individual odds of each horse when added up, should fall between 122 and 126.

No one strives harder for accuracy in making morning line odds than Jon White. Fastidious, meticulous, conscientious, punctilious—pick any adjective—they apply to the Spokane, Wa. native whose 46-year racing career includes being one of the youngest stewards in history at age 24 when serving in that capacity for the Washington Horse Racing Commission at Yakima Meadows in 1979.

 He has been morning line maker at several tracks, and since 2009 at Santa Anita, where he has made the morning line odds for the Breeders’ Cup the last six times the championship event has been run there.

 “I had the correct favorite in 70 percent of the 2019 Breeders' Cup races at Santa Anita,” White proudly points out, adding, “I also was pleased at how my morning line odds compared to the winner's final odds in all 14 of the Breeders' Cup races (noted below).”

 ML     Final  Winner (Race)

Jon White

  4-1     9-2    Vino Rosso (Classic)

  9-5     1-1    Bricks and Mortar (Turf)

  6-1     8-1    Blue Prize (Distaff)

  7-2     7-2    Uni (Mile)

  9-5     9-5    Mitole (Sprint)

  8-1   13-1    Iridessa (Filly & Mare Turf)

  6-1     9-1    Spun to Run (Dirt Mile)

12-1   14-1    Belvoir Bay (Turf Sprint)

  2-1     3-2    Covfefe (Filly & Mare Sprint)

20-1   45-1    Storm the Court (Juvenile)

12-1   13-1    Sharing (Juvenile Fillies Turf)

  7-2     5-2    British Idiom (Juvenile Fillies)

  5-1     5-1    Structor (Juvenile Turf)

  3-1     3-2    Four Wheel Drive (Juvenile Turf Sprint).

White continued: “In making the morning line, I am trying to predict what the betting public is going to do, not how I think the betting should be. 

“Back in the 1970s, the line was submitted early in the morning on race day. Hence its name, but nowadays the morning line has evolved into an advance line in that it’s submitted two or more days before race day.

“In the 70s, I almost always would have a race add up to anywhere from 123 percent to 125 percent. Currently, the morning line has to be submitted well in advance of race day in order to appear in the Daily Racing Form, so now I generally go with 127 or 128 percent, mainly because so many things can change prior to race day, such as late scratches, weather conditions, etc.

“The morning lines I made for the 2019 Breeders’ Cup were issued on Monday, well in advance of the races that would be run the following Friday and Saturday. Not only that, but for the first time in the many years I’ve been making morning lines, I had to submit my odds for all the Breeders’ Cup races BEFORE the draw for post positions.

“If I learn from the racing office or a reliable source that a horse almost certainly is going to be scratched on race day, I will treat that horse the same as an also-eligible. An also-eligible’s odds are not included in the race’s total when adding up the percentages.

“And if I know that ‘Horse A’ is almost certain to be scratched on race day, I do not include that horse when adding up the percentages in a race, which means I can have a race sometimes go very high, like 145 or thereabouts. But when Horse A ultimately is scratched on race day, the race then adds up to a normal 127 or 128.

“I handle probable race-day scratches that way when making the morning line because I think it’s in the public’s best interest. Whether I’m making a morning line or working in TV or as a steward, I do whatever I can to help the public. And if I know it’s a virtual certainty that Horse A is going to be scratched, it is better for those wagering to have more realistic odds submitted for the morning line even if the percentages add up something like 145.”

Suffice it to say, White eats, sleeps and breathes horse racing. He takes little or nothing for granted when producing the morning line, which these days is always subject to censure, as the world is rife with invidious social media junkies who bask in their own opinions.

“Making a morning line—especially a good one—is a real challenge,” White said. “I put a lot of hard work into every single horse in every single race on every single card, generally four to six hours including prep work, which includes going through the past performances with a fine-tooth comb . . . That’s why it does hurt when there is criticism. However, the reality is criticism does come with the territory. It’s sort of like being a referee or an umpire. It sure is easy for someone to knock a morning line when they haven’t even taken the time to add up the percentages in a race.

“The bottom line is it’s much easier for a person to criticize a morning line than to put their neck on the chopping block and actually have to do it.

Russell Hudak

“But it’s gratifying whenever I’ve made the right favorite, and the final odds end up being in the same ballpark as the morning-line odds. But even after a race has turned out okay from a morning line perspective, I am always—and I mean always—holding my breath in terms of the next race hoping that it will turn out well.”

Like White, Russell Hudak is a paragon of his pastime although perhaps somewhat less obtrusive in his philosophy.

 “The primary purpose behind the morning line is pointing out the direction wagering will take, providing bettors with an indication of which horses will be most heavily backed and which figure to be longer prices,” notes Hudak, the morning line maker and timer at Del Mar and the Thoroughbred morning line maker and timer at Los Alamitos Race Course.

Hudak, 67, was born in Jersey City, N.J., raised on the Jersey shore, and in 1985 became the morning line maker (and later head clocker) at Hollywood Park, which closed in December 2013.

He was introduced to racing while attending Rutgers University earning a BA in sociology and labor studies. “I attended the races at Monmouth Park with my dad on a break and took an immediate interest in the tote board activity,” Hudak said…

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