Bloodstock Briefing - examining the sire lines which are no longer popular and asking what has caused their demise?

Article by Jordin Rosser

The first breeders of the modern-day thoroughbred had imported 197 Middle Eastern stallions to breed to their English mares in the 17th and 18th centuries, but only three of those stallions’ sire lines are present today – the Darley Arabian, Godolphin Arabian and Byerley Turk (1). Of these three foundational sire lines, the Darley Arabian has dominated the bloodstock industry, with both the Godolphin Arabian and Byerley Turk sire lines having dwindled in number. Even with the abundance of the Darley Arabian line, there are branches in this foundational sire’s line which have been lost or are endangered.

To discover why these sire lines are disappearing, we must look at the thoroughbred breed on a global stage. We have gathered pedigree analysts and breeders from Europe, United States, and Australia to examine the less popular sire lines and what factors caused their demise. Suzi Prichard-Jones (the author of Byerley, The Thoroughbred’s Ticking Time Bomb and founder of The Byerley Turk & Godolphin Arabian Conservation Project) and Alan Porter (a pedigree analyst for Pedigree Consultants LLC and co-creator of TrueNicks) are pedigree experts from Ireland/United States and United States, respectively. John Messara (the founder and owner of Arrowfield Stud in NSW, Australia), David O’Farrell (the operations manager of Ocala Stud in Florida, USA), and Kirsten Rausing (the owner and operator of Lanwades Stud in Newmarket, England) are breeders whose high profile, highly successful, stud farms are shaping the landscape of the thoroughbred breed. 

Q: Why do you believe the Godolphin Arabian and Byerley Turk sire lines have become less prevalent? 

The pedigree analyst panelists weighed in with a history of these three foundational sires, explaining how the first champion progeny sires, born in the mid-1700s, are a coordinated blend: Herod (Byerley Turk sire line – Darley Arabian mare), Matchem (Godolphin Arabian sire line – Byerley Turk mare), and Eclipse (Darley Arabian sire line – Godolphin Arabian mare). 

These champion sire lines dominated the breed utterly until the 20th century.  The beginning of the fall of the Godolphin Arabian line in America, most recognizable as the Man O’ War line, occurred around World War II when a tremendous number of horses were being imported from Europe. 

Alan Porter mentions, “at that point, European horses were just better – dirt, turf, any surface. They swept aside the North American sire lines”. Furthermore, Porter mentions “for a 36-year period (from 1939 – 1974), with the exception of 5 times, a European stallion or son of a European stallion was the leading sire in America”- giving scale to the domination of the European imports in American pedigrees. 

During this period, Northern Dancer dominated the global bloodstock due to the mixture of American pedigree and European (specifically Darley Arabian) sire lines. Suzi Prichard-Jones believes the Byerley Turk and Godolphin Arabian lines dwindled for a different reason: Temperament. The Byerley Turk horses are very intelligent and high-spirited where the Godolphin Arabian horses are tough, hardy, and determined. These characteristics, Prichard-Jones explains, require a lot of time and patience which often leads to gelding the colts, thereby ending their chance to continue the sire line. 

Q: Given the dominance of some Darley Arabian sire lines over others and the shrinking of the Godolphin Arabian and Byerley Turk sire lines, what impacts on the breed do you expect if these sire lines disappear? 

One of the pedigree analyst panelists, Suzi Prichard-Jones, spoke extensively on this topic. She theorizes the Thoroughbred breed’s success relies on the “balance” between the three foundational sire lines. Due to at least one other foundational sire line being found within the first six generations of every modern Thoroughbred, she believes the traits of the Godolphin Arabian and Byerley Turk are maintaining the breed to be “fit for purpose”. 

Prichard-Jones speculates if these two sire lines disappear, Thoroughbreds will be “fast but heartless horses” due to the spirit, temperament, toughness, and hard-headedness characteristics the two sire lines bring. However, we truly do not know what impacts the narrowing sire lines will have as there has been insufficient genetic research available to produce future breed projections. 

Q: Does the bloodstock industry place more importance on results in the sales ring or results on the racetrack – particularly involving selection of sires or predicting future success of sires? 

Many panelists agreed: most of the market will select only sires whose progeny there will be a market for. Alan Porter mentions, “other than a few very high net worth individuals, a higher proportion of breeders, particularly in the US, are breeding with the expectation of selling” – dictating the change in the bloodstock industry from mostly “breed to race” operations to breeders providing a sustainable sales model. 

The panelists concur that the market believes when selecting stallions for breeding mares, the stallion’s own results on the racetrack matter first, then the narrative changes to the sire’s progeny performance after the first few crops. 

John Messara follows this approach and states he “is more interested in athletic performance and believes results in the sales ring will follow racetrack success”. He also mentions that Japan’s current model of breeding, by breeding the high performers with other high performers, has brought significant success on the track across the globe – giving much credibility to their methodology. 

However, there are also instances of the opposite, as there are a few examples where “stallions can give progeny better than themselves”, as mentioned by Kirsten Rausing, in reference to stallions such as Danzig, who raced only 3 times in his career and is a sire of champions.  This phenomenon is rare however, as the success rate of Danzig’s progeny provide a counterpoint to the conventional wisdom.

Q: How do we attempt to preserve unpopular sire lines or prevent narrowing the genetic pool of the breed? 

Fortunately, there are a few tactics to help: global shutting of stallions and importing stallions to allow for outcrossing. Outcrossing, a practice that brings in “new blood” to the region’s bloodstock, typically crosses stallions who are progeny of successful stallions in other geographical regions and/or stallions that do not have any inbreeding within four generations with a chosen mare. 

David O’Farrell of Ocala Stud says he is “a big believer of the outcross and not afraid to breed to certain sire lines that may not be as fashionable”. Ocala Stud is known for having stallions intended for outcrossing to local mares – many of their success stories include Girvin, Kantharos and the up-and-coming Win Win Win. Similarly, Kirsten Rausing’s Lanwades Stud has had success in “offering breeders and broodmare owners something outside of the ordinary” and a stallion who will “complement the mare population of Europe” including their current stallions Study of Man and Bobby’s Kitten. 

Over the years, the industry has seen how the importing of stallions has strengthened the breed to perform well on the racetrack and in modern times, particularly in Australia and Europe, the practice of shuttling of stallions is proving to have similar results. 

Through all these discussions, some panelists mentioned a glimmer of hope for the Byerley Turk, Godolphin Arabian and endangered Darley Arabian sire lines. There are multiple examples of sire lines coming back from the brink of extinction – a few favorites from the panelists include Fappiano’s Cryptoclearance line reemerging with Candy Ride (ARG), Nasrullah’s Caro line resurging with Uncle Mo, and the most successful story: Storm Bird’s Storm Cat line with 5-time American leading general sire Into Mischief. Each of these resurgences occurred after the use of the outcross technique, leading to future successful stallions and breathing new life into their sire lines. 

Prichard-Jones, Suzi. “The Thoroughbred’s Genetic Cocktail”. Chart. Suzi Prichard-Jones: The Byerley Turk & Godolphin Arabian Conservation Project. Suzi Prichard-Jones, 2021. https://suziprichard-jones.com/the-byerley-turk-godolphin-conservation-project/, 04/01/2024.

**NEW** for 2024 - Bloodstock Briefing - Asking pinhookers if the shift in the 2yo sales season (to later dates) has influenced the type of horses they consign for sale

Article by Jordin Rosser

Even though term pinhooking came from the tobacco industry in Kentucky, it is widely used in the Thoroughbred racing industry as a concept where horses are bought at one stage of life and sold at another stage of development in the hopes of a profit based on the breaking, training and maturing process of these animals. 

We have gathered a panel of pinhook sellers of both yearling to two-year-olds, weanling to yearlings, and breeders to discuss their thoughts on selection at sales and their view of the business. Our panelists include: Richard Budge, the general manager of Margaux Farm who oversees the breeding and training of yearlings and two-year-olds; Eddie Woods, a well-established two-year-old consignor and yearling pinhooker; Marshall Taylor, a thoroughbred advisor at Taylor Made – known for yearling consignments; Niall Brennan, a respected two-year-old consignor and yearling pinhooker. 

Q: When selecting yearlings for pinhooking to the two-year-old sales or weanlings for the yearling sales, which qualities do you look for? 

Many of the panelists concur on the primary qualities necessary for a prospective successful pinhook being conformation, pedigree, and clean vetting – but generally, wanting “quality”. Such traits include an early maturing body, muscle, good conformation, and pedigree for yearling pinhooks to two-year-olds. Some consignors weigh some of the main qualities with different weights, for example, Eddie Woods looks at the conformation of the prospect before the pedigree but will analyze sire lines and sire statistics to assist him in his selections. In contrast, Richard Budge starts with the pedigree then evaluates the conformation and analyzes the whole picture. For weanling to yearling pinhooks, the primary attributes to consider are pedigree, conformation, good movement, and early foaling dates. Marshall Taylor further discussed wanting to find a good-sized body, longer neck, laid back shoulders and good strides when walking. At the end of the day, “quality is a perception” as stated by Niall Brennan – these qualities are statistically likely to sell well in both the yearling sales and the two-year-old sales from the seller’s perspective.  

Q: Given the two-year-old sales have decreased in number and have moved to later months, do you believe it has incentivized yearling selection and/or breeders to favor later maturing horses?  

A resounding “no” came from the panelists. Looking back into the history of two-year-old sales gave a clearer picture as to why the sentiment has not changed. The main two-year-old sales currently are the OBS March, April and June sales in Ocala, Florida as well as the Fasig Tipton May and June sales in Timonium, Maryland. However, there used to be OBS February, Calder and Adena Springs sales, Fasig Tipton’s Gulfstream sale, and Barretts’ (a company whose final auction was in 2018) March and May sales in Pomona, California. 

Niall Brennan commented that when the earlier sales were going on, the horses would “breeze within themselves easily” instead of breezing for the clock as is evident in today’s sales. Due to this emphasis, pinhookers noticed some horses needed more time to mature to run quicker times and with the horsemanship shown throughout the industry – all the panelists indicated that “the horse will tell you which sale it belongs in”. With the two-year-olds’ sales model having changed many variables, one variable that stayed the same is the horse attributes needed to be successful in these sales. Which leads to the conclusion being the same and sentiment remaining steady despite changes in the industry.

Q:  Hypothetically, if the two-year-old sales changed from breezing to galloping with technological devices to provide metrics to analyze, do you think the market or breeders would change their strategies? 

Most of the panelists believed this hypothetical would not work well for the two-year-old sales model. Some of the panelists discussed the Barretts sales model having horses gallop untimed instead of breezing or breezing with times in the 100ths. Niall Brennan commented that the granularization of the breeze times “caused more speculation from the buyers” and changed their perspective on the individual horses based on fractions of a second. The juxtaposition of sales with only untimed gallops and sales with timed breezes caused many buyers to “compare apples to oranges” – leading to a perceived dismissal of the idea. 

In the current market and with the technology available today, this may not be possible, but Marshall Taylor believes “any information you have is good information” and “moving forward with technology is a positive”. In the future and with significant technological advancements, this hypothetical could be real. In the words of Niall Brennan, “the time will come when we aren’t worried about time [during breezing]”. 

Q: In terms of breeding, what trends do you currently see and what trends do you want to see benefiting the pinhooking market? 

The consensus from the panelists indicated breeding speed and quick maturing horses is the current trend in the pinhooking market. Richard Budge stated “precociousness is valued highly into the making of a stallion” in America. Marshall Taylor mentioned technology is used in making breeding decisions, particularly Nick reports. These use the daily updating percentage of stakes winner indexes to determine if sire and dam lines are compatible for the desired outcome culminating in a high performing racehorse. 

Based on many of the responses in what type of weanlings or yearlings are selected at the beginning of the pinhooking process, the need for precocious and well-bred horses is no surprise. Richard Budge, believes that turf racing has become more popular and believes the growth of this segment in thoroughbred racing should encourage pinhooks to look for turf in their prospect’s pedigrees. However, the bloodlines will need to support this idea and the American breeders will need to include more English, French and South American bloodlines to adjust for these factors. 

Q:  Where do you see the pinhooking market right now? 

The panelists all agree on this point: the buyer market is focused on quality over quantity and concentration of the buyer market. These trends encourage pinhookers to purchase weanlings or yearlings that tick all their boxes to produce quality prospects leading to increased prices as a function of competition. According to many panelists, the market is focused on what is perceived to be the “top end” – by pedigree, conformation, vetting, and/or under tack time. Based on the rising costs of ownership, Marshall Taylor mentioned “partnerships are becoming more popular” amongst the buyers, allowing owners to offset these increased costs. 

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Throughout these interviews, it is apparent pinhookers have a keen ability to read the horses and determine how to bring their best on “NFL combine” day in the case of the two-year-olds. Niall Brennan and Richard Budge gave credit and appreciation to all the pinhookers who actively prepare these athletes and show their horsemanship through breaking, training, consigning, and breeding of these animals. 

We see all the hard work that goes into preparing these athletes for race day through their accomplishments. To produce this feat on demand and to make money in the process is what pinhooking thoroughbreds is all about.