#Soundbites - Why are the average number of starts and field size declining annually?

Article by Bill Heller

The 2024 Jockey Club Fact Book showed that the average field size run in 2023 races was 7.40, down from 7.59. Thoroughbreds’ average number of starts also dipped from 6.01 to 5.87. Back in 1990, the average field size was 8.91 and the average number of starts 7.94. Why are the average number of starts and field size declining annually?

Todd Pletcher

I think the number starts, in a lot of cases, is management. I think over the years trainers have become more conservative about how many starts horses have with more time between races. More rules about when you can train your horses may be a factor. And the foal crop is having an absolute impact.

Dale Romans

That’s a good question. It’s above my pay grade. I’d say the reduction in foals every year. Also, it’s a lot more difficult to run a horse. More horses are scratched by veterinarians.

Barclay Tagg

The horses just aren’t as hardy as they used to be. Justify, he ran six times and he’s one of the leading sires in the country. And he didn’t start until his three-year-old season. You can’t do basic therapy anymore. These horses are athletes and you need to take care of them. You’ve got to be able to train your horses. They make it really hard. You can’t pinfire your horses’ shins. You can’t blister a horse any more. Horses don’t even feel that. It’s about the calmest thing you can do. They’ve got the wrong people making these decisions.

Wayne Catalano

It’s very simple. The foal crop has been down for a long time. It should be 40,000 (In 1990, it was 40,333; last year an estimated 17,200). Obviously, it’s going to catch up with us. Also, you’ve got the new ruling body. It’s a different game these days. You have people coming up that don’t know how to take care of horses.

Brian Lynch

Is it the foal crop? That would be my answer to that. There’s always concern that the tracks haven’t been the best. There have been more breakdowns than I’ve ever seen. More to the point, it’s the foal crop.

Mark Casse

I think it’s pretty simple. I run over a thousand starts a year. I have to enter over 3,500 times to do that. I would have 50 percent more starts if there were races for me. That tells you. I’m lucky because we have options. I can look at different tracks. But I can have 15 horses in my barn with no races for them.

When I first started, they didn’t publish every trainer’s statistics. They’re all worried about their percentages. Their horses stay in the barn. 

The other thing, in my opinion, the state programs have really hurt, and I’ll tell you why. Fifteen, maybe 20 years ago, I went to California, I never got a long maiden long race. The Cal-bred horses did. That’s another factor. 

Ron Ellis 

The truth is with HISA coming in and veterinary restrictions, we can’t run the horses as often as we used to. All the restrictions and all the veterinary requirements, including expensive scans we’re under now, are certainly one of the reasons. We have a lot more restrictions.

Karl Broberg

Golly, where do you begin? I was looking at the Fact Book last night, and what I was most concerned with was looking at foal crops by region. I began shaking my head. Every region is down. In the future, there’s only going to be racing in Kentucky and New York. It’s returning to the sport of kings. I think what’s missed, due to the economics, is that people are giving up on horses much quicker. That’s a huge factor. Also, there are fewer opportunities. 

Tom Proctor

Wow. You would need more than a sound bite. I’d be forever telling you why. I don’t have a say in how this business goes. There are people who win a zillion races and their opinions don’t matter.