#Soundbites - Why are the average number of starts and field size declining annually?

Article by Bill Heller

The 2024 Jockey Club Fact Book showed that the average field size run in 2023 races was 7.40, down from 7.59. Thoroughbreds’ average number of starts also dipped from 6.01 to 5.87. Back in 1990, the average field size was 8.91 and the average number of starts 7.94. Why are the average number of starts and field size declining annually?

Todd Pletcher

I think the number starts, in a lot of cases, is management. I think over the years trainers have become more conservative about how many starts horses have with more time between races. More rules about when you can train your horses may be a factor. And the foal crop is having an absolute impact.

Dale Romans

That’s a good question. It’s above my pay grade. I’d say the reduction in foals every year. Also, it’s a lot more difficult to run a horse. More horses are scratched by veterinarians.

Barclay Tagg

The horses just aren’t as hardy as they used to be. Justify, he ran six times and he’s one of the leading sires in the country. And he didn’t start until his three-year-old season. You can’t do basic therapy anymore. These horses are athletes and you need to take care of them. You’ve got to be able to train your horses. They make it really hard. You can’t pinfire your horses’ shins. You can’t blister a horse any more. Horses don’t even feel that. It’s about the calmest thing you can do. They’ve got the wrong people making these decisions.

Wayne Catalano

It’s very simple. The foal crop has been down for a long time. It should be 40,000 (In 1990, it was 40,333; last year an estimated 17,200). Obviously, it’s going to catch up with us. Also, you’ve got the new ruling body. It’s a different game these days. You have people coming up that don’t know how to take care of horses.

Brian Lynch

Is it the foal crop? That would be my answer to that. There’s always concern that the tracks haven’t been the best. There have been more breakdowns than I’ve ever seen. More to the point, it’s the foal crop.

Mark Casse

I think it’s pretty simple. I run over a thousand starts a year. I have to enter over 3,500 times to do that. I would have 50 percent more starts if there were races for me. That tells you. I’m lucky because we have options. I can look at different tracks. But I can have 15 horses in my barn with no races for them.

When I first started, they didn’t publish every trainer’s statistics. They’re all worried about their percentages. Their horses stay in the barn. 

The other thing, in my opinion, the state programs have really hurt, and I’ll tell you why. Fifteen, maybe 20 years ago, I went to California, I never got a long maiden long race. The Cal-bred horses did. That’s another factor. 

Ron Ellis 

The truth is with HISA coming in and veterinary restrictions, we can’t run the horses as often as we used to. All the restrictions and all the veterinary requirements, including expensive scans we’re under now, are certainly one of the reasons. We have a lot more restrictions.

Karl Broberg

Golly, where do you begin? I was looking at the Fact Book last night, and what I was most concerned with was looking at foal crops by region. I began shaking my head. Every region is down. In the future, there’s only going to be racing in Kentucky and New York. It’s returning to the sport of kings. I think what’s missed, due to the economics, is that people are giving up on horses much quicker. That’s a huge factor. Also, there are fewer opportunities. 

Tom Proctor

Wow. You would need more than a sound bite. I’d be forever telling you why. I don’t have a say in how this business goes. There are people who win a zillion races and their opinions don’t matter.

Patrick O’Keefe - Kentucky West Racing

Article by Bill Heller

Growing up in Ogden, Utah, Patrick O’Keefe never saw a racetrack. But it didn’t prevent him from falling in love with a horse. 

Patrick did bond with his father through railroads. “I’m a two-generation railroad worker,” he said. “My dad worked for the Union Pacific Railroad. I worked there while I was going to college at the University of Utah. Just before I graduated, he had a heart attack and died. My railroad career ended at that point. So I hooked up with a good friend, Dennis Bullock. I loved golf. We went looking for a property to build a golf course. We looked all over the country. We didn’t have a lot of money, but we had a lot of energy.”

Their search took them to Bear Lake, Idaho, near the southeast border of Idaho and Utah, and Patrick liked what he saw. They found the property owner and made a deal. “I gave him $10 down,” Patrick said. “I had to come up with $2,000.”

He did. They built a golf and country club, and then sold some 1,000 lots on the property. “I was pretty good at sales,” Patrick said.

On a fateful day, one of Patrick’s buddies from home, Wayne Call, paid a visit. He’d moved to the east and was back visiting family. “He lived right next to me in Ogden,” Patrick said. “His dad worked for Union Pacific.” Wayne, who had worked in bloodstock and trained a few horses, told Patrick he thought Bear Lake would be a great place to raise Thoroughbreds. Patrick told Wayne he thought it was too cold to raise horses but Wayne told him the cold kills parasites and limits disease. In Ray Paulick’s February 2022, story in the Paulick Report, Patrick said, “We have good water and several hundred acres, so I said I’d give it a try. I was dumb as a post. I had no background in racing whatever.”

So he leaned on Wayne and they took off for a nearby off-track betting facility in Evanston, Wyoming. “Wayne told me to look for a mare that’s won a lot of races that had good breeding,” Patrick said. He settled on Rita Rucker, a granddaughter of Danzig who’d won 21 races, including four stakes and earned $249,767. Her last start was in a $16,500 claimer, and Patrick got her for $7,500.

Patrick chose Kentucky West Racing—a courtesy to Wayne who once owned a hotel named Frontier West—as a stable name and bred Rita Rucker to Thunder Gulch. Patrick decided to raise the foal on his farm in Bear Lake. “My ranch is 200 acres,” he said. “We fenced a paddock. We had a little manger—a lean-to. When they unloaded Rita Rucker, she was absolutely gorgeous. I couldn’t believe my eyes.”

Rita Rucker foaled a filly. Patrick named her Private World, fitting his farm’s secluded area. “I’d drive up to the ranch two or three times a day,” Patrick said. “She’d see me coming and start to run along the fence line. That was her. She just loved to run.”

One snowy evening, she ran away. “Lots of snow, and I came to watch her one night,” Patrick said. “The fence was broken, and she was gone. My ranch adjoins the National Forest. What happened was an elk got through the fence to go after my feed. I saddled another horse and got a lariat. She was at the top of the mountain. I worked my way up to the top of the mountain. It was snowing. It was amazing. It took me hours to get her.”

But he did. “She was just a yearling,” Patrick said. “I built a barn for her.”

When it was time to find a trainer, a friend recommended Bob Hess, Jr. Hess and Patrick quickly discovered they had a talented two-year-old filly. Private World won her first three starts, a maiden race at Del Mar, an ungraded stakes at Santa Anita and the $100,000 Moccasin Stakes at Hollywood Park.

“I’m offered a million and a half after the race,” Patrick said. He didn’t take long to say ‘no.’ “Let me tell you something, I was in love with that horse,” Patrick said. “I was in love with her from the day she was born. I just figured that this horse was going to be the start of something fantastic.”

Her next race was anything but. In the Gr. 1 Hollywood Starlet, Private World tired to finish last—11th by 20 ¼ lengths. She then finished second in a $96,000 stakes and fourth in an $83,000 stakes. She had posted three victories and one second in six starts and earned $166,058.

She never raced again. “She ran through an iron fence and broke her leg,” Patrick said. “I didn’t have any insurance. I lost her for racing, and I thought we would have to put her down.”

Patrick brought her back to Bear Lake, and she slowly recovered. “I spent months with her,” he said. “I hauled in bale after bale of straw. I slept in the barn with her. I bawled my eyes out for a month. I told her as long as she’s alive, I would stay in the business.”

He meant it, and now, at the age of 80, his business is thriving with a partner, Clarke Cooper. After Private World recovered, Patrick bred her to Giant’s Causeway and was rewarded with the three-year-old speedy colt Classic Causeway, who took Patrick and Clarke on a heck of a Triple Crown ride, capturing the Gr. 3 Sam F. Davis and the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby for trainer Brian Lynch.

After Classic Causeway finished 11th in both the Gr.1 Florida Derby and the Gr. 1 Kentucky Derby, Patrick and Clarke switched trainers to Kenny McPeek. In his first start for his new trainer, the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby, Classic Causeway fought on the front end before weakening to third.

McPeek thought Classic Causeway would handle turf, and he gave his new horse quite the challenge: the mile-and-a-quarter Gr. 1 Belmont Derby at Belmont Park July 9. Sent off at 26-1 under Julien Leparoux, Classic Causeway went wire-to-wire, winning by three-quarters of a length. Subsequent good races, thirds in the Gr. 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational and the Gr. 3 Jockey Club Derby Invitational, leaves his connections plenty of options in a promising future.

Private World has since foaled a colt and a filly weanling by Justify, and she’s in foal to Maximum Security. “We’re loaded; we’re loaded with potential,” Patrick said. “I didn’t take the money when I needed it. I just wanted to go on this journey and see where it takes us.”

On August 31, the journey took him to a destination he’d never envisioned growing up in Ogden, Utah. He was named the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association September Member of the Month. And he knows who to thank.

Asked what he thinks of when someone says “Private World,” he said, “I think of love.”   

Brian Lynch - the Australian born trainer whose set to make a mark at Ellis Park this summer

By Ken Synder

“If you find something you love, you’ll never work a day in your life,” said trainer Brian Lynch. “I’ve been blessed to do a job that I have a passion for. I have fun with it.”

“Fun” is not a word often associated with training Thoroughbreds. The job, as everyone in racing knows and as Lynch noted, “is seven days a week, 365 days a year.”  The word, however, crops up often for those who know Lynch.

“He’s fun to be around,” said Richard Budge, general manager at Margaux Farm, where many of Lynch’s horses have begun careers as yearlings. 

Dermot Carty, a bloodstock agent who first met Lynch when he came to Canada in 2005, echoed Budge: “With Brian, he just makes it fun. He makes it enjoyable through the good times and the bad. He’s one of the few true characters in the business who actually puts enjoyment into horse racing.” 

Greg Blasi, Churchill Downs outrider who knows Lynch away from the racetrack “cowboying” with him, (more on this later), expressed it most succinctly: “He’s a hoot.”

Of course, the most fun is trips to the winner’s circle, and Lynch has made plenty of those: 720 at press time and earnings just short of $47 million.

A native of Wagga Wagga in New South Wales, Australia, Lynch fits, perhaps, the profile of a stereotypical and classic “Aussie.” 

“We have more of a laid-back attitude than Americans. It’s nothing to share a few beers with each other and have a good time…helps you make new friends, that’s for sure.”

What Lynch did before coming on the racetrack may explain also why racing is more fun to him than anything. He was a bull rider back home. In fact, he came to America in 1992 to join this country’s professional circuit with big purses after learning the trade locally. “They had a local rodeo back home, and it was a big thing. Not far from the racetrack was a horse trader who had some bucking horses and some bucking bulls; and I used to hang around his place a lot. That’s where I got the taste for jumping on bulls.”

The racetrack Lynch mentioned is an unusual triangular racecourse that was across the road from his home and where he got his start, filling water buckets and learning to ride as a boy. “I could ride from a young age. It wasn’t long before I graduated to galloping horses. 

“I was always a little bit too big to be a jockey. I sort of found a lot of work helping on the wilder horses.”  Apparently, it was experience sufficient to prepare him for something bigger and more dangerous…with horns.

Thoroughbreds sidetracked Lynch when he came to Southern California and a small farm near the border with Mexico. “There was a little Thoroughbred farm called Suncoast Thoroughbreds. I got a job breaking colts for them, and it wasn’t far from San Luis Rey.”  

Lynch said he “annoyed” the stewards there till they gave him a trainer’s license. His start was with two horses at San Luis Rey.

That led to training for the Mabee family’s Golden Eagle Farm in Ramona in San Diego County.

“I kicked around California for a lot of years just with small numbers, just scratching out a living—selling, and running horses, and flipping horses. I was bringing some from Australia and moving them.” 

His big break was training at Santa Anita and Del Mar where he met some important influences. “Most say they admire the Father, Son, and Holy Ghost. For me, it’s Ron McAnally, Jack Van Berg, and Bobby Frankel,” he said with a laugh.

When Frankel learned the Mabee family was going to downsize their Thoroughbred operation, he approached Lynch about joining his stable as an assistant. “He was starting to get more two-year-olds than he’d ever had. That’s when Chad [Brown] and I teamed up with horses for Bobby. Chad went to California, and I went to South Florida and Palm Meadows in the first year that it opened,” said Lynch.

“Bobby certainly wasn’t a textbook teacher,” Lynch said of the legendary New York trainer who died in 2009. “He wasn’t going to walk you through everything. He was a guy that if you were around him enough and you didn’t absorb anything from him or learn anything from him, then shame on you.”

Frankel, not known publicly as being chatty, was half of a truly odd couple with the amiable Aussie. Not just the experience, but the friendship is treasured by Lynch. “He had a heart of gold. He was a great guy to train horses for and just a wonderful human being.”

Lynch’s big break came when he moved to Canada to manage Frankel’s division at Woodbine in 2005. In 2006 he went out on his own, eventually becoming a private trainer for Frank Stronach. 

Canada was very much to his liking; in both 2006 and 2007, his earnings topped $1 million before jumping to over $3 million in 2008. That year began his string of consecutive top 100 earning trainers in North America that continued through last year.

He is quick to credit owners for his success and consistency: “I’ve been very blessed to have long-term owners who like to play the game and who have always tried to work on finding the better horses.  Fortunately enough, if you look back over the list, there’s been quite a few of them.”

Quite a few indeed. Lynch trained Clearly Now, who set the Belmont record for seven furlongs (1:19.96) in that track’s 2014 Sprint Championship, earning an Equibase speed figure of 122. (To give you an idea of how phenomenal the performance was, the next year’s Sprint Championship winner won in 1:22.57.)  Other top horses include Grand Arch, owned by Jim and Susan Hill of Margaux Farm and  winner of the Gr. 1 Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes at Keeneland in 2015; Oscar Performance, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita in 2016; and Heart to Heart, winner of two consecutive back-to-back Gr. 1 stakes in 2018 at Keeneland and Gulfstream Park. Most notable outside the U.S. was a win in Canada’s 2015 Queen’s Plate Stakes with Shaman Ghost.

While many trainers get labels for being good with two-year-olds, sprinters, etc., there is an enviable trademark for Lynch’s horses: long careers. “I’ve raced two- and three-year-olds and still have them around running Gr. 1’s and winning at six or seven.” Grand Arch raced till the ripe old age of seven and in stakes company, finishing his career in the Forbidden Apple Stakes at Belmont. “Keep them in good form and you’ll have them still around when they’re older,” said Lynch who also points to “patient owners” like the Hills, willing to give their horses a break as a necessary ingredient in managing racing careers.  

If there is a label, Lynch is unaware of it. When it was pointed out that in the past five years he had started more horses on the turf than on dirt, his response elicited another Lynch trademark: humor.  “Probably because they were too slow for the dirt.

“I guess I primarily grew up training horses and riding horses to run on the turf down there [Australia], so I probably am influenced to run ‘em on the grass. I’m certainly not frightened by the dirt, by any means, but somehow, I ended up trying them on the grass. If they run well there, I’ll keep them on that surface.”

Brian Lynch with mentor D. Wayne Lucas

As intent as he is on enjoying himself and bringing enjoyment to others in the game, he is “no-nonsense” as a trainer—a euphemism not used by Carty to describe Lynch. “He can figure out in a very short period of time if a horse has or does not have any talent. He’s not one of those bull***t trainers who tells people that, ‘yes, yes, it’s going to get better’ and in his heart and soul, he knows it’s just for a day rate. He’s not interested in the day rate. He’s interested in developing and making great racehorses.”

Asked about his success and consistency, Lynch responded with characteristic modesty and self-deprecation: “One thing I’ve learned about training horses over the years is I’ve gotten very good at delivering bad news. That’s what you seem to do a lot.”

Unlike many high-profile trainers with multiple divisions and large strings of horses who are more business people than trainers, Lynch’s focus is the barn first, and then business. “It’s switch on, switch off,” said Carty. “Clients will feel good and enjoy themselves at the races with Lynch. But when he goes back to that barn and those horses, he switches to Brian Lynch who looks after the horses, making sure they’re ok. 

“He’s there first thing in the morning, and following the races, he goes over and checks every stall and goes through it. He’s not one who would just leave it to the help,” said Carty.

Richard Budge offered another perspective on Lynch. “I would say he’s unique in the fact he’s willing to roll the dice in a stakes race with a horse that may be an outsider.”

Brian Lynch with groom Juan Garcia

A case in point was a recent start by Phantom Currency (yet another Hills-owned horse) in the Gr. 3 Kitten’s Joy Appleton Stakes at Gulfstream in April. The horse was coming off a 13-month layoff. While most trainers may have looked for an allowance race tune-up, Lynch went for the gold. The horse won, earning a very impressive 114 Equibase speed figure.   

“If a horse is training well, he’ll ask, ‘Why not? Let’s give it a shot,’” added Budge.  

“That would be a huge positive. We can be a little tentative about where to place them or put them. You never know if you could have run a stakes race when you run in an allowance.

That very question faces Lynch with his first potential Kentucky Derby starter, in Classic Causeway.  

After two impressive wins—the first in the Gr. 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February and a month later in the Gr. 2 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby with identical and impressive Equibase speed figures of 104—the horse finished a mystifying last in the Florida Derby.

Classic Causeway, owned and bred by Clarke M. Cooper and Kentucky West Racing, is one of three foals from the final crop of Giant’s Causeway who died in 2018. 

He made his debut at Saratoga last September and blew away the competition from gate to wire over seven furlongs, winning by six-and-a-half lengths. The horse entered the Derby picture with a third-place finish in the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Futurity in October at Keeneland and followed that with a second-place finish in the Gr. 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November at Churchill Downs. His two wins at Tampa Bay Downs earned him qualifying points for one of the 20 spots in the gate the first Saturday in May.

Before the Florida Derby, Lynch had this to say about the son of the great Giant’s Causeway, known as the “Iron Horse” after winning five Gp. 1 races in just 11 weeks as a three-year-old. “You always hope that you come across one in your career that you can have a ‘kick at the can’ in the Derby, but fortunately this horse came into our stable, and he’s done everything we’ve asked of him. I think he’s just getting better, and we’re really excited to have him.”

louis rushlow

Whatever lies ahead, Lynch said he will “stop and smell the roses,” whether they’re draped across the withers of Classic Causeway at Churchill Downs or the figurative kind. 

He embraces a positive attitude toward racing that most of us should emulate. “Racing is a game of ups and downs. You could be dodging missiles in Ukraine. You get over a loss, have a beer or soft drink, and move on.”  

His idea of relaxation may be an indication of the kind of person Brian Lynch is. When Greg Blasi mentioned one day he and other outriders were going up to a farm east of Louisville to work cattle, the 57-year-old Lynch was quick to say to Blasi, “If you ever need some help, just let me know.”  

He’s ridden with Blasi, and the others as many times as he’s had the opportunity, ever since. “He’s just a very good horseman, whether it’s on the back of a pony herding cows—just whatever,” said Blasi. “He used to gallop his own horses. He’s come up the hard way, and he tells stories about when he didn’t have a couple of nickels to rub together. Nothing was handed to him. I respect guys like that. There are a lot of people that didn’t have to struggle to get where they are.

“He’s also a lot of fun to be around.”  Ah, there’s that word. 

For a guy who’s ridden bucking broncos and bulls, you might expect a certain fearlessness. Not so: “I have one fear in life, and that is that there’s a good time going on somewhere and I’m not in the middle of it.”