The new weight for age scale - why the changes? | Trainer Magazine | European Trainer Article Index

Dec 31

Dec 31 The new weight for age scale - why the changes?

In September 2016 the European Pattern Committee (EPC) announced a new weight-for-age scale, which will be implemented across Europe from 2017. This comes as a result of the long-held argument that three-year-olds enjoy greater success than older horses over longer distances from July onwards, when the current weight-for-age scale appears to give them a significant advantage. WORDS: LISSA OLIVER PHOTOS: CAROLINE NORRIS, BHA HAT the EPC describes as “robust statistical analysis,” using data gathered over a period of six years, backs up that theory and has led to amendments in the weight-for-age scale over 10 furlongs and above from the second half of June, to reduce the advantage received by three-year-olds in these races. The changes have been made in the interests of fairness and competitiveness and were agreed by all nations who form the EPC. The purpose of the weight-for-age scale is to give an allowance to younger horses to enable them to compete equally with their older counterparts, allowing for a broadly equivalent strike rate when all ages are competing together. The thorough analysis of European race results has shown that three-year-olds have a higher strike rate than older horses, particularly noticeable from July onwards, and over longer distances. The analysis also In September 2016 the European Pattern Committee (EPC) announced a new weight-for-age scale, which will be implemented across Europe from 2017. This comes as a result of the long-held argument that three-year-olds enjoy greater success than older horses over longer distances from July onwards, when the current weight-for-age scale appears to give them a significant advantage. WORDS: LISSA OLIVER PHOTOS: CAROLINE NORRIS, BHA Phil Smith, the BHA’s Head of Handicapping, analysed data extensively with the BHA’s racing department and found evidence that three-year-olds are improving at a faster rate than the current Weight-For-Age scale anticipates demonstrated that as distance increases, so does the strike rate and average winning distance of three-year-olds, providing them with an unintended and unfair advantage over older horses. Following extensive consultation with stakeholders throughout Europe, adjustments have therefore been made to the weight-for-age scale with effect from 2017, ranging from a minor reduction of 1lb (½ kilo) at 10, 11, and 12 furlongs (2000m, 2200m, and 2400m) to a maximum reduction of 3lb (1½ kilos) over longer distances, where the advantage afforded to three-year-olds was found to be the most acute. The first change coming into effect with the new weight-for-age allowance for threeyear-olds will be from the first half of June over 14 and 15 furlongs (2800m and 3000m). Remaining changes will be introduced from the first half of July over 10 furlongs (2000m) and above. In addition, changes to the four-year-old allowance between January and July, which naturally flow from the adjustments to the three-year-old allowance, will not come into effect until January 2018, when the same pool of three-year-olds in 2017 ultimately turn four. “When we embarked upon this project we had two clear objectives in mind – to ensure that the weight-for-age scale was meeting its core objective of providing a level playing field for all runners, and to ensure that the scale remained consistent across all of Europe. We believe that both of those objectives are achieved by the modifications,” states Brian Kavanagh, chairman of the EPC. “Implementing change to something as complex and integral as the weight-for-age scale could not be done on a whim, and nor could it be carried out without the buy-in of all the nations who are being asked to “To achieve support for the adjustments to the Scale across all of Europe is a testament to the rigour of the analytical process Brian Kavanagh Phil Smith ” -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 5f 6f 7f 8f 9f 10f 11f 12f 13f 14f Strike Rates and Distance 3yo 4yo+ Variance 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 5f 6f 7f 8f 9f 10f 11f 12f 13f 14f Winning Margin 3yo 4yo+ 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Strike Rates 3yo 4yo+ Variance Strike rates and distance Winning margin Strike rates Comparisons between three- and four-year-olds British Horseracing Authority (BHA)’s head of handicapping Phil Smith, working with the BHA’s Racing Department, carried out an extensive data analysis, comparing the strike rate for three-year-olds against older horses over a period of six years. It looked at the differences between each year, month, and by distance across a sample of 89,385 runners in 8,000 handicaps and 5,136 runners in 600 weight-for-age races, comparing finishing position, rivals beaten, and average winning distance, among the many other points examined. Races were only selected if they were open to three-year-olds and upwards and had both generations participating in them. Similar detailed research by other European nations corroborated the BHA’s findings. Smith reveals, “When we started the process of reviewing the weight-for-age data well over a year ago, I suspected that the statistics might show a bias towards three-year-olds over longer distances in the second half of the season. The data has borne that out. “The key findings of the data were that three-year-olds have a higher strike rate than older horses, which is particularly noticeable from July onwards, and that as distance increases, so does the strike rate of three-year-olds and their average winning margin. This is because three-year-olds are on average improving at a faster rate than the weight-for-age scale currently dictates. “The alterations made to the scale should help to create a more level playing field for older horses competing against three-yearolds across Europe. At first the alterations will be seen as a trial and all the data will be kept under review for a number of years, to ensure that the alterations are having the desired, and necessary, effect.” As well as collating data, lengthy ongoing consultations with all stakeholders throughout Europe has helped to compile a uniform scale that will hopefully have no future bias for any one group of horses. Ruth Quinn, director of international racing and racing development for the BHA, explains, “In the light of the stakeholder feedback, achieving a uniform scale throughout Europe has been a key priority for all involved. As such, we are delighted that the EPC and its member countries have formally endorsed the proposal. “The scale is obviously designed to compensate younger horses for their lack of physical maturity. It was never designed to provide an advantage to one particular age group at the expense of another. There is implement it. To achieve support for the adjustments to the scale across all of Europe is a testament to the rigour of the analytical process, the clear evidence it produced, and also to the progressive attitude of European racing nations,” concludes Kavanagh. As part of the research by the EPC, the average horse is generally thought to develop, making the assumption that the longer the race, the more weight allowance a younger horse needs to compete equally. The allowance reduces as the year progresses and it is linear, based on the assumption that the average horse develops at the same rate every half-month. It is accepted that different horses develop at different rates and therefore some will be ahead of the scale, whilst others are behind it. Rupert Arnold, chief executive of the National Trainers Federation (NTF), admits, “Our Flat Committee was at fi rst sceptical of the argument that a change was needed to the weight-for-age scale, which in their opinion had stood the test of time. All credit to the BHA Racing Department for the depth of evidential data they produced to demonstrate that in the current era, the scale marginally favours three-year-olds at certain times of year over longer distances. The NTF endorsed the changes subject to them being applied throughout Europe, so we are pleased that the other European Pattern Committee members have come on board.” ■ e extensive evidence to indicate that the scale needs amending to more accurately refl ect the physical development rate of today’s average racehorse. “It was the fi rm belief of the EPC that no horse should be knowingly advantaged by a concept which was originally designed to provide a level playing fi eld. We have a collective responsibility to ensure that the environment within which horses compete is as equitable as possible.” Obviously, the weight-for-age scale has apparently stood the test of time for many years and there were always going to be those who were anxious about any changes made. While research may have shown the current fl aws, which Quinn and Smith attribute to changes in levels of maturity in the modern racehorse, we will have to wait a number of years to ensure the amendments made have achieved their purpose. The scale is based on a theory of how

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First published in European Trainer issue 56 - January '17 - March '17

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